A Jockey's Triumph Fuels a Derby Dream, But Can It Last?
Andrea Atzeni, the celebrated Sardinian jockey, had a day to remember at Sha Tin on Sunday, not only securing a fantastic treble but also significantly boosting the faint hopes of his mount, Flow Water Flow, for the prestigious Hong Kong Derby. This victory comes hot on the heels of a successful double at Happy Valley just days prior, showcasing Atzeni's remarkable form.
Atzeni's winning streak began with a brace in the Class Four Lung Yat Handicap (1,200m) on the dirt, guiding King Dance and Good Chap to victory. He then capped off his stellar day by clinching the Class Three Yau Oi Handicap (1,800m) aboard Flow Water Flow. This latter win was particularly crucial for Flow Water Flow, who desperately needed to improve his low rating of 63 to even be considered for the demanding 2,000m Hong Kong Derby.
Flow Water Flow, under the astute training of John Size, demonstrated impressive progression with this back-to-back victory. Emerging from a crowded stretch, the horse showed a remarkable turn of foot to snatch the win. Atzeni, currently holding a strong third position in the championship with 25 wins, highlighted the importance of the support he's receiving and his ability to ride lightweight horses, which he finds incredibly beneficial.
"I thought I could have won the first on Manythanks Forever but it didn’t happen and Rezeki ran well finishing second, but we had a good day," Atzeni commented, reflecting on his performance.
Stepping up to Class Three after a promising win in his previous outing, Flow Water Flow, carrying a lightweight of just 115lb, proved his mettle. He triumphed as the second favorite at $4.5. Despite being held up in the early stages and finding himself shuffled back as the field approached the turn, Atzeni skillfully navigated the traffic. The son of Proisir ultimately speared through a gap between rivals at the 200-meter mark, launching a decisive final surge.
But here's where it gets controversial... While Karma, a $34 outsider, made a dramatic late charge from the rear, Flow Water Flow dug deep on the inside to secure a narrow victory by a short head. Even Dazzling Fit, the 3.7 favorite and another Derby contender, finished a respectable half-length back in third, having also appeared to be a serious threat in the closing stages. This close finish between multiple Derby hopefuls raises questions about the true strength of the field and the horses' readiness for the ultimate test.
Atzeni was clearly impressed with Flow Water Flow's performance, noting his consistent record of two wins and three seconds from five starts. "He did well to win really because with the kind gate [five], we were hoping to sit a little bit closer because we didn’t think the pace was going to be strong," Atzeni explained. He added, "I had to wait for the gap to appear and once the gap opened, obviously going up in trip he let down quite nicely and I know he didn’t win by far, but I felt like I was always in control of the race."
And this is the part most people miss... Atzeni also acknowledged the challenge posed by Karma, a more seasoned competitor. "Obviously Karma’s a very good horse, he’s been around here a million times compared to my guy, but we had 115lb on our back." This comment subtly points to the significant advantage of a lighter weight in such a tight finish. Could Karma have won with a more favorable weight, or was Flow Water Flow simply the superior horse on the day?
With his rating expected to climb into the high 60s, Flow Water Flow faces a race against time to qualify for the HK$26 million BMW Hong Kong Derby on March 22nd. Trainer John Size remains cautiously optimistic but realistic. "He’s done well – he’s progressive, he continues to pitch up and do the right thing. I’ve asked him probably to do a little bit more than usual by stepping up in distance so quickly and he’s handled it," Size stated. However, he added, "As far as the Derby’s concerned, he might be too far behind schedule for that. We’ll wait and see."
Adding to the day's excitement, Emblazon, another potential Derby entrant, also secured a victory in the Class Three Yan (!_ Yan Tin Handicap (1,400m). This marked his fourth win in his last five starts. Emblazon, trained by Cody Mo Wai-kit, benefited from a favorable draw and a smooth run to defeat Ka Ying Attack by half a length. Juneau Pride, another of Size's Derby hopefuls, finished well behind in third. Emblazon's rating is projected to reach the high 70s.
What do you think? Is Flow Water Flow a genuine Derby contender, or was this victory a lucky break? Can he overcome the rating deficit and a potentially stronger field in the upcoming Derby? Share your thoughts below – do you agree with the trainers, or do you see a different outcome on the horizon?
