China's solar export subsidies are set to be phased out, which could significantly impact the global solar panel market and benefit Indian firms. With China accounting for 80% of the global solar panel value chain, the removal of its subsidies will likely drive up global prices, providing an opportunity for Indian solar exporters to gain a competitive edge. This shift could particularly benefit solar module manufacturers, such as Waaree and Premier Energies, which have been playing second fiddle to China's subsidized products. The removal of the 9-13% rebate will make Indian solar modules more competitive, both domestically and in exports, as China's module manufacturing is currently 10% cheaper than India's and 20% cheaper than the US's and 35% cheaper than Europe's. Waaree and Premier have already seen significant growth, with Waaree deriving 47% of its revenue from exports in Q2FY26, up from 17% in FY25, and Premier having more room to grow its exports. However, the removal of subsidies could also intensify domestic competition, as firms like Asahi India Glass, Hindustan Glass, and Sejal Glass may double down on solar glass production, which is currently dominated by Borosil Renewables. Borosil's profitability has been volatile due to India's regulations, but the removal of Chinese subsidies could improve its situation. Additionally, chemical players in India, such as Neogen Chemicals and Himadri Speciality Chemical, are poised to benefit from the shift away from Chinese manufacturing, as they look to expand their capacities for lithium-based chemicals. However, risks remain, as building solar plants will become more expensive, and some Indian companies may face challenges in the long term. Overall, the removal of Chinese subsidies could be a significant development for India's solar industry, but it will require careful management and strategic planning to fully capitalize on the opportunities.
